BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in North Carolina has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 38 (95% range 29–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 38 (95% range 29–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025393048
2026393047
2027393047
2028383047
2029382947

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Mourning Dove in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Speed11720241966
Genoa10520241990
Dudley10320242002
Call8320241968
Fairmont7719811968
Cypress Lakes7720242004
Bullock7420241997
Oakboro7320241969
Montague7320241990
Rhems7219931990
Jackson7020171995
Shallotte6619911966
Hulls Xroads6420231997
Rowland6320241990
Dortches6220241990
Belgrade6220192002
Hertford6120241997
California5920131972
Jamesville5920241983
Monticello5820241990
Rheasville5820172005
Sturgills5720242001
Madison5619851966
Fairview5420241991
Jarvisburg5219991992

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.