BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in New Jersey has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New Jersey is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 12–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New Jersey is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 12–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025241336
2026241236
2027241235
2028241235
2029231235

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Mourning Dove in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clarksville10819911969
Pedricktown 26920242013
Deepwater6519771969
Pedricktown6320121991
Holmansville6020091969
Winslow4720241989
Woodbury Hgt4120241967
Villas3919811979
Croton 23920242008
Keyport3720221986
Kemah Lake3620241966
Mt Misery3419891976
Pomona3320241978
Roosevelt3120221986
Greenwich3020241966
Six Points3020241978
Bennett Mill2920001966
Pottersville2820241977
Ramseysburg2820241995
Hope2619941970
Dover2620231977
Cranbury2520241987
Robbinsville2419791966
Spraguetown 32320242021
Toms River2220241966

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.