BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in California has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
262Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in California. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in California is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.3–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in California is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.3–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025167.424
2026157.223
2027156.923
2028156.623
2029146.323

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Mourning Dove in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hughson48520241968
Alamo River14020181973
Joshua Tree13620021970
Needles11019731973
Tres Pinos 210820112005
Orland10720221972
White River10619921972
Harbor Lake10419911973
Glamis10220181968
Imperial Dam9620101973
Parkfield9320241968
Atwater8820121971
Athlone7620071972
Tranquillity7320241972
Coalinga7120221973
Oilfields7020131968
Caruthers6819871972
Adelaida6220241970
Red Bluff6020241968
Pennington6020241971
Joshua Tree 26020162013
Creston5820241972
Sanger5720242011
Glenn5520231971
Bakersfield5320231968

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.