BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Kentucky has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 31–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 31–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026423153
2027423153
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2029423153
2030423153

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glencoe8920221966
Keysburg6920251968
Pleasurevill6720251979
Staffordsvil6719971996
Plum6520251966
Boxville6419831966
Johnsonville6320211966
Cedar Grove6220251966
Million 26020242006
Eastview5520251967
Sewell Shop5520251966
Shiloh5320251967
Demunbruns5220211966
Hodgenville 25220232008
Paintsville5119951979
Levee 25120192007
Canton5020251967
Joy5020231966
Kehoe 24620242005
Sulphur Lick4520241966
Merrimac4520241967
Hustonville4420251966
Lebanon Junction4420252000
Gatewood4320191966
Lovelacevile4220251967

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.