BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Kentucky has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Kentucky is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 31–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Kentucky is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 31–53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glencoe8920221966
Pleasurevill8820241979
Staffordsvil6719971996
Boxville6419831966
Johnsonville6320211966
Eastview6220241967
Sewell Shop6120231966
Million 26020242006
Keysburg5520241968
Demunbruns5220211966
Hodgenville 25220232008
Paintsville5119951979
Levee 25120192007
Joy5020231966
Hudson4920241966
Riverqueen4620242007
Kings Mtn4620241966
Kehoe 24620242005
Sulphur Lick4520241966
Mcbrayer4520241966
Merrimac4520241967
Gatewood4320191966
Hustonville4220241966
Goshen4219991966
Canton4120241967

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.