BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Vermont has surged: up 387% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+387%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Vermont: up 387% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Vermont is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 7.8–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Vermont is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 7.8–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026157.222
2027157.322
2028157.522
2029157.622
2030157.822

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gaysville1720251977
Fletcher1720251969
North Pownal1620251966
Colchester1620251986
Hardwick1520241967
S Reading1120241968
S Wallingfrd1120221966
Hinesburg1119941966
Northfld Fls1020251980
Newbury1020041986
Grand Isle1020251967
W Rutland920251966
Greensboro920251968
Stowe920241989
Shaftsbury820251966
St Johnsbury720251970
East Calais720251968
Waterville719801967
Middlesex620251969
Bristol620251995
Newbury 2520232005
Marlboro420251967
Stratton420251968
Landgrove320251973
East Haven220251967

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.