BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Vermont has surged: up 394% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+394%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Vermont: up 394% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Vermont is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 8.2–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Vermont is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 8.2–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025157.622
2026157.822
2027157.922
2028158.122
2029158.223

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fletcher3020241969
Hardwick1520241967
North Pownal1320241966
East Calais1320241968
Greensboro1320241968
Bristol1320181995
W Rutland1220241966
Marlboro1120241967
S Reading1120241968
S Wallingfrd1120221966
Middlesex1120241969
Hinesburg1119941966
Newbury1020041986
St Johnsbury920241970
Colchester920241986
Stowe920241989
Waterville719801967
Shaftsbury620241966
East Haven620241967
Grand Isle620241967
Landgrove520241973
Gaysville520211977
Northfld Fls520211980
Newbury 2520232005
Stratton320241968

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.