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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Minnesota has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Minnesota is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 6.2–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Minnesota is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 6.2–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026177.227
2027176.927
2028176.726
2029166.526
2030166.226

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Appleton7920251978
Chokio North6720251993
Maynard5720151967
Chandler5520251969
Chokio5320251969
Oklee5220211969
Beltrami5020251967
Fairmont4920251993
Lockhart4720251993
Chatfield 24320252003
Caledonia 24320252013
Redwood Fall4220251978
Tracy3620252004
Wylie3520241969
Worthington3520252004
Arlington3420251967
Sherburne Nr3420251990
Big Stone3320121995
Franklin3220251993
Courtland3020251978
Lakeville2620251968
Knapp2620251967
Huntley2520251967
Millville2520251967
Glyndon2520251978

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.