BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Minnesota has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Minnesota is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 6.1–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Minnesota is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 6.1–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025177.127
2026176.927
2027176.626
2028166.426
2029166.126

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Appleton5920241978
Chokio North5820241993
Maynard5720151967
Chandler5620231969
Fairmont5420231993
Courtland5220241978
Oklee5220211969
Franklin5120241993
Lakeville5020211968
Chokio5020241969
Beltrami4720241967
Tracy4120242004
Sherburne Nr4120241990
Redwood Fall3820241978
Worthington3720242004
Wylie3520241969
Knapp3420241967
Glyndon3420241978
Greenbush3420241993
Princeton3320241969
Big Stone3320121995
Caledonia 23120242013
Arlington3020241967
Huntley2720241967
Ash Creek2620241975

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.