BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Missouri has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Missouri is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 20–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Missouri is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 20–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025302040
2026302040
2027302040
2028302039
2029292039

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emden10120242017
Blodgett9320242013
Cole Camp8919901971
Madison7520241971
Cp Girardeau7020241967
Kennett6620242015
Kirksville6520241994
Hayti6320212016
Mcfall6120241994
Frankford5920241985
West Plains5920242014
Whitewater5820241996
Sweden5520241968
Lucerne5520212016
Tarkio5419891968
Kahoka25420242002
Norborne5320232006
Watson5220241991
Auburn5120242014
Bolckow4919921967
Hamilton4819851972
Eugene4820242013
Rensselaer4720241971
Huntsville4520241967
Stet4419951972

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.