BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Connecticut has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Connecticut is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 13–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Connecticut is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 13–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241334
2027241334
2028241334
2029241334
2030241334

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Danbury5220231968
Willimantic4320181967
Warren2920111972
Southington2920251973
Long Hill2520191972
Uncasville2420251973
Mid Haddam2420251973
New Hartford2219871972
Woodstock2120071968
E Hartland1919921966
Buckingham1920221966
Granby1820251988
Sherman1620191972
Greenwich1520181967
Warren 21220252012
Westbrook1020251969
New Hartford920241994
Mystic520231973
No Woodbury420251967
Woodstock 2420252016

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.