BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Connecticut has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Connecticut is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 14–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Connecticut is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 14–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025241435
2026241435
2027241435
2028241435
2029241435

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Danbury5220231968
Willimantic4320181967
Southington3120241973
Warren2920111972
Mid Haddam2920241973
Long Hill2520191972
Uncasville2420241973
New Hartford2219871972
Woodstock2120071968
E Hartland1919921966
Buckingham1920221966
Granby1720241988
Westbrook1620241969
Sherman1620191972
Greenwich1520181967
Warren 21420242012
New Hartford920241994
No Woodbury720241967
Mystic520231973
Woodstock 2520242016

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.