BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in New York has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+110%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in New York: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026272231
2027272232
2028272332
2029272332
2030282332

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Mourning Dove in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macdougall11120251969
E Youngstown7620251966
Churchville7520251968
Romulus5720001968
Penfield5720251968
Naples4920251966
St Johnsburg4720251967
Dryden4620251966
Duanesburg4320251966
Watertown4020121967
North Easton3620251967
Gainesville3520231967
Orleans3420251967
Hamburg3420251967
East Java3420251967
Castile3420251967
Nashville3420181967
Mcdonough3320171967
Cobleskill3220231966
Branchport3220241967
Meridale3020251967
Byron3020251967
Corbettsvile2920251966
Cattaraugus2920191967
Harris Hill2920252005

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.