BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in New York has surged: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+108%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in New York: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New York is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New York is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025262231
2026272231
2027272232
2028272232
2029272332

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Mourning Dove in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Youngstown6820231966
Churchville6520241968
Meridale6020241967
Romulus5720001968
St Johnsburg5420241967
Macdougall5120241969
Corbettsvile4720241966
Rushville4720241968
Orleans4620241967
Naples4620241966
Byron4120241967
Duanesburg4020241966
Watertown4020121967
East Java3820231967
Dryden3720241966
Castile3620241967
Cayuga3520241969
Gainesville3520231967
Nashville3420181967
Mcdonough3320171967
Cicero Ctr3320241966
Cobleskill3220231966
Branchport3220241967
Cattaraugus2920191967
Penfield2920241968

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.