BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Texas has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
249Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Texas. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Texas is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 46 (95% range 32–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
32–6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Texas is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 46 (95% range 32–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three Rivers22520251994
Loyola Beach 222420252010
Booker18720251975
Raymondville18220251969
Pantex15720251974
Weinert15319941969
Twichell14320251996
Hondo13320251969
Williams13220251996
Millett 212820242013
Hobson12620251968
Dalhart12320251994
Pecos12120172017
Gruver11920251994
E Georgetown11819791967
Lamesa11520251968
Bayside 311020252005
Lockhart10420251967
Claytonville10420221995
Brite10320251994
Texline10120251975
Pidcoke 210120252018
Walburg9920251980
Schroeder9819971967
Eldorado9720231975

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.