BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Texas has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
247Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Texas. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 46 (95% range 32–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
32–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 46 (95% range 32–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025473261
2026473261
2027463261
2028463261
2029463260

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 224920242010
Booker19520241975
Raymondville18820241969
Pantex17320241974
Weinert15319941969
Gruver14920241994
Albany13320241969
Millett 212820242013
Waka12720241975
Pecos12120172017
E Georgetown11819791967
George West11620241967
Oyster Lake11520241995
Cavasara Cr.11220231995
Pear Valley11120241969
Dilley10920242018
Three Rivers10420241994
Claytonville10420221995
Pidcoke 210220242018
Chinquapin10020241995
Schroeder9819971967
Eldorado9720231975
Progreso9620111994
Texline9320241975
Goliad Prairie9320162004

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.