BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in New Mexico has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 4.9–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 4.9–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025245.542
2026245.342
2027235.242
2028235.042
2029234.941

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Mourning Dove in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roswell18320231968
Hobbs11020241994
Columbus8720241992
Red Rock8420241992
Mesilla8120001992
San Antonio7119771974
Clovis6820241993
Deming6519751968
Hatchet Peak6320241992
Floyd5720241968
Mountainair5420241992
Bitter Lake5020231994
Tucumcari4719751975
Gage4720241968
Pep4720241992
Sabinoso4320211980
Valencia4119971968
Laborcita3920191992
Jornada3720241974
Rodeo3520241974
Lakewood3320211980
Laborcita 23320242022
Nageesi2920241968
Reserve2820231993
La Plata2820131990

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.