BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in New Mexico has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+30%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New Mexico is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 5.3–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in New Mexico is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 5.3–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026245.942
2027245.742
2028245.642
2029245.542
2030235.342

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Mourning Dove in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roswell13920251968
Bitter Lake8520251994
Mesilla8120001992
Columbus7520251992
San Antonio7119771974
Clovis6820241993
Deming6519751968
Floyd6320251968
Hobbs5520251994
Mountainair5420241992
Reserve5220251993
Tucumcari4719751975
Cooley Lake4720251968
Pep4720241992
Sabinoso4320211980
Valencia4119971968
Laborcita3920191992
Laborcita 23920252022
Rosebud3620251994
Hatchet Peak3620251992
Dulce3620252000
Rodeo3420251974
Mcgaffey3420251994
Lakewood3320211980
Gage3220251968

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.