BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in North Dakota has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in North Dakota: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in North Dakota is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 57 (95% range 30–84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in North Dakota is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 57 (95% range 30–84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026573084
2027573084
2028573084
2029573084
2030573084

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Mourning Dove in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gorham17320251968
Bowman14820251967
Glen Ullin14420251982
Dickinson13720251968
Carson13020251988
Golva12820251979
Bentley12020241988
Sydney11619831967
Ft Yates11520041968
Regan10820251968
Cooperstown10620251969
Danzig 29320252019
Stanley8920251967
Douglas Crk8620251982
Dunn Center8320251968
Walcott8220231967
Zap7820241967
Solen7620252005
Edgeley6920251980
Powers Lake6320251980
Webster6120241989
Kempton5920171967
Forman5720251968
Sheyenne Lk5620251980
Denbigh5420251968

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.