BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in North Dakota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 55 (95% range 29–82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in North Dakota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 55 (95% range 29–82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025562982
2026562982
2027562982
2028552982
2029552982

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Mourning Dove in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bentley12020241988
Dickinson11820241968
Bowman11820241967
Sydney11619831967
Ft Yates11520041968
Cooperstown11420241969
Danzig 210820242019
Solen9320242005
Edgeley9220241980
Carson8820241988
Douglas Crk8320241982
Walcott8220231967
Zap7820241967
Gorham7520181968
Golva7420231979
Horsehead Lk7020241980
Glen Ullin6620221982
Dunn Center6520241968
Powers Lake6220241980
Webster6120241989
Kempton5920171967
Parshall5420131982
Emerado5020241973
Denbigh5020241968
Buchanan4920241967

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.