BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Louisiana has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+107%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Louisiana: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 25–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 33 (95% range 25–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026312339
2027322439
2028322440
2029322440
2030332540

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brousville19920251998
Mayflower9720251967
Floyd7620211988
Transylvania6220251998
Maurice5920241988
Rayville 25220252009
Frogmore5020251998
Hackberry 25020252018
Ltl Chenier 25020112010
Rayville4920081967
Delhi4620212011
Shaw4420241967
Trout4120251988
Bickham4020251972
Port Allen3920242000
Mer Rouge3820081967
Ltl Chenier3720251986
Junior3619911987
Kaplan3620231998
Tensas Nwr3620251987
Clay3520251968
Concord3420192006
Forked Island3420252008
Carlisle3219881968
Flat Creek3120251998

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.