BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Maine has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

21×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Maine: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Maine is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.6–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.6–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Maine is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.6–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025149.019
2026149.119
2027149.319
2028149.519
2029149.619

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East Troy3120191972
Brooks3020191977
Harmony2820241969
Bowdoin Ctr2420211972
Warren2419901975
Manchester2219951971
Hudson2220161973
Cornville2220242012
Washburn2120051983
Searsport1920242002
Turner 21920242011
Westbrook1820241977
Castine1620061982
Rome1620241996
Church Hill1620171991
Kittery Pt1520241967
Otisfield Gr1520151973
Freedom1420221973
Charleston1420191977
Ft Fairfield1420051993
Newcastle1320241971
Turner1320101972
Wytopitlock1319981979
Jefferson1320101991
Cape Neddick1220241972

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.