BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Maine has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

21×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mourning Dove Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Maine: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Maine is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.6–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.6–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Maine is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.6–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026149.019
2027149.119
2028149.319
2029149.519
2030149.619

Mourning Dove Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brooks3320211977
East Troy2920211972
Turner 22520252011
Bowdoin Ctr2420211972
Warren2419901975
Cornville2420252012
Manchester2219951971
Hudson2220161973
Hermon2120211967
Washburn2120051983
Westbrook1820241977
Harmony1720251969
Hancock1720251969
Searsport1720252002
Castine1620061982
Rome1620241996
Church Hill1620171991
Otisfield Gr1520151973
Reeds1420251990
Freedom1420221973
Ft Fairfield1420051993
Kittery Pt1320251967
Newcastle1320241971
Turner1320101972
Jefferson1320101991

Mourning Dove Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.