BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk

AccipitridaeBirds of preyButeo lineatus

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+255%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,985RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Red-shouldered Hawk

The Red-shouldered Hawk (Buteo lineatus) is a North American member of the Hawks, Eagles & Kites (Accipitridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
17.5–39.5 in long (45–100 cm) — a medium to large raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 1,985 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 38 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Accipitridae · Birds of prey

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in surveyed states: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.62–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.62–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.720.570.87
20260.730.590.88
20270.740.600.89
20280.760.610.90
20290.770.620.91

Where the Red-shouldered Hawk Is Detected

BBS routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk, sized by most recent count.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend by State

Red-shouldered Hawk population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+723%1968103
Arkansas+476%196958
California+521%1970129
Connecticut16×197619
Delaware+776%197414
Florida+92%1968124
Georgia+876%1968110
Illinois21×196951
Indiana+436%196844
Iowainsufficient datan/a3
Kansas+744%197420
Kentucky+867%196858
Louisiana+326%196986
Maine-12%197620
Maryland13×196869
Massachusetts+388%196921
Michigan+314%197251
Minnesota-70%197517
Mississippi26×196869
Missouri25×197777
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a1
New Hampshire+13%196821
New Jersey+512%197717
New York-15%196874
North Carolina17×1968101
Ohio13×196853
Oklahoma+509%196943
Oregon13×200014
Pennsylvania+344%196892
Rhode Island+69%19865
South Carolina+147%196849
Tennessee31×196848
Texas+137%1969130
Vermont+81%197015
Virginia13×196975
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a2
West Virginia+364%196859
Wisconsin+16%196843

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Red-shouldered Hawk population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest+449%197441
Boreal Hardwood Transition-5%197144
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+167%196849
Atlantic Northern Forest+180%196874
Sierra Nevada+81%198110
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+271%198823
Edwards Plateau+196%197617
Oaks and Prairies+562%196965
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie16×1968130
Prairie Hardwood Transition+258%196873
Central Hardwoods13×1968159
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+281%1969108
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+626%196960
Southeastern Coastal Plain+429%1968335
Appalachian Mountains13×1968311
Piedmont17×1969155
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+773%1968119
Peninsular Florida+72%196880
Coastal California+503%197090
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-49%19804
Tamaulipan Brushlands+47%19748
Gulf Coastal Prairie+20%196929

Red-shouldered Hawk Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 255% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.