BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+180%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.16
20260.080.000.16
20270.080.000.16
20280.080.000.16
20290.080.000.16

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManchesterMAINE41973
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS42024
HarmonyMAINE32021
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS32013
AuroraMAINE22021
Carrying PlMAINE22001
CharlestonMAINE22014
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
NewcombNEW-YORK21993
North RiverNEW-YORK21979
S ReadingVERMONT22022
MiddlesexVERMONT22010
Newbury 2VERMONT22021
New HartfordCONNECTICUT12024
Wilson MillsMAINE11984
TurnerMAINE11973
GreenwoodMAINE12017
ReedsMAINE12021
South ArmMAINE11999
Bowdoin CtrMAINE12011
FreedomMAINE11996
BentonMAINE11971
NorthfieldMAINE11977
CambridgeMAINE11976
MedwayMAINE11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.