BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+258%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.04–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.030.15
20260.090.030.15
20270.090.030.15
20280.090.040.15
20290.100.040.15

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MatherWISCONSIN42023
RemusMICHIGAN32024
LakevilleINDIANA22024
BravoMICHIGAN22023
New TroyMICHIGAN22024
S LyonsMICHIGAN21986
CohoctahMICHIGAN22024
St StephenMINNESOTA22008
Stevens PtWISCONSIN22017
KnoxINDIANA12024
MiddleburyINDIANA12016
Columbia CtyINDIANA12004
Indiana DuneINDIANA12024
ScottvilleMICHIGAN12023
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN12024
LawrenceMICHIGAN12022
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN12021
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN12022
MontereyMICHIGAN12024
MottvilleMICHIGAN12018
No BradleyMICHIGAN12022
OlaMICHIGAN12021
AdrianMICHIGAN11979
JuniataMICHIGAN12016
OwendaleMICHIGAN11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.