BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-5%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-shouldered Hawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.10
20260.040.000.10
20270.040.000.10
20280.040.000.10
20290.040.000.10

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22008
Brush CreekMICHIGAN22011
HerronMICHIGAN22016
MayfieldMICHIGAN22010
BayfieldWISCONSIN22008
MontrealWISCONSIN21974
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN12012
Maple GroveMICHIGAN12006
ShingletonMICHIGAN12007
Bear LakeMICHIGAN12015
TahquamenonMICHIGAN12023
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN11991
Lake CityMICHIGAN12008
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN12021
RacoMICHIGAN12014
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN12019
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN11994
SkeelsMICHIGAN12005
CathroMICHIGAN12016
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN11994
Sand LakeMICHIGAN12023
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN12024
HarriettaMICHIGAN12024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN12024
Frederic 2MICHIGAN12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.