BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 626% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+626%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 626% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.12.7
20261.91.22.7
20272.01.22.7
20282.01.22.7
20292.01.32.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KraemerLOUISIANA182024
RamahLOUISIANA162024
MaynardARKANSAS82024
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI82024
LaroseLOUISIANA61992
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA62024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA42024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI42022
LafeARKANSAS32021
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS32024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI32021
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI32024
AugustaARKANSAS22001
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS22022
EnglandARKANSAS22024
BardwellKENTUCKY22003
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY22023
CarlisleLOUISIANA21988
ShawLOUISIANA22024
MayflowerLOUISIANA22023
BrousvilleLOUISIANA22024
BelairLOUISIANA22023
Port AllenLOUISIANA22024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA22022
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.