BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 605% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+605%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 605% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-shouldered Hawk In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.22.7
20272.01.22.7
20282.01.32.8
20292.01.32.8
20302.11.32.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KraemerLOUISIANA202025
RamahLOUISIANA172025
LaroseLOUISIANA61992
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI62025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI62025
RoselandLOUISIANA52025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA42025
DundeeMISSISSIPPI42022
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE42025
LafeARKANSAS32021
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI32021
TippoMISSISSIPPI32025
AugustaARKANSAS22001
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS22022
BardwellKENTUCKY22003
CarlisleLOUISIANA21988
ShawLOUISIANA22024
MayflowerLOUISIANA22025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA22025
Port AllenLOUISIANA22024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA22022
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI22024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI22022
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI22018
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.