BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Massachusetts has surged: up 420% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+420%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Massachusetts: up 420% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.38 (95% range 0.14–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.38 (95% range 0.14–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.120.59
20270.360.130.59
20280.370.130.60
20290.370.140.60
20300.380.140.61

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheffield320132013
Belchertown220251967
Chesterfield220251985
E Dennis120102010
Marion120241973
Ware River120211993
Prattville120191998
Brockton120191986
Littleton120251978
N Oxford120192018
Mansfield120251998
E Pepperell119831983
Warren120021976
S Barre120241994
N Orange120191969
Cummington120131968
Monterey120232023
Holden119771977
N. Andover120052002
Warren 2120232012
Cummington 2120232019

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.