BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Texas has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+137%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Texas: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.43–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Texas is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.43–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.720.411.0
20260.720.421.0
20270.730.421.0
20280.730.431.0
20290.740.431.0

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moon Lake 2720232013
Liberty Hill620231969
Diboll520241968
Lydia520231973
Decatur520241995
Paige520242015
Neches Bith520172016
Caledonia420241969
Sadler420241998
Blue Ridge420242000
Powell Park420211995
Weches420241995
Bon Wier420241996
Smyrna420101996
Gambill Ref.420242009
Smyrna 2420182011
Hinkles Fer320241968
Peach Creek319841968
Valley Spgs320231978
Kosse320231988
Crossroads320241973
Athens320241969
Oak Grove 2320242003
Cayuga320242002
Fannin320231998

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.