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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Texas has surged: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+139%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Texas: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.45–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.45–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.730.431.0
20270.740.431.0
20280.750.441.1
20290.750.451.1
20300.760.451.1

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moon Lake 2920252013
Sadler820251998
Diboll720251968
Paige720252015
Arenosa Crk620251973
Caledonia520251969
Lydia520251973
Burton520251999
Mt. Selman520251999
Decatur520241995
Neches Bith520172016
Massey Lake420251970
Crossroads420251973
Oak Grove 2420252003
Carlos420251993
Powell Park420211995
Smyrna420101996
Gambill Ref.420242009
Easton 2420252014
Peach Creek319841968
Valley Spgs320231978
Kosse320231988
Osage320251997
Athens320251969
Thornton 3320252018

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.