BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-70%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.05
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.010.000.05

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Stephen220082008
Money Creek119751975
Brainerd120021993
Ashby120032003
Millville119831983
Tamarac Nwr120031991
Minnetonka120162014
Arlington120062006
Le Center120232023
Princeton120182014
Osseo120192019
Knapp120012001
Cromwell119961996
Wigwam Bay119871970
Backus119801980
Pine River119911973
Edwards120211984

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.