BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Delaware

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Delaware has surged: up 776% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+776%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Delaware: up 776% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Delaware is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.11–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Delaware is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.11–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.071.1
20260.580.081.1
20270.590.091.1
20280.600.101.1
20290.610.111.1

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Pleasant220191987
Wilmington220141997
Frankford220071998
Millsboro220242023
Holleyville 2220242015
Pepperbox220162005
Harrington120232005
Frederica120142009
Holleyville120011975
Lowes Xrds119781970
Blackbird120222017
Milton120082008
Georgetown120222001
Pepperbox 2120242018

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutfloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.