BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Arkansas has surged: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+476%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Arkansas: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Arkansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.71–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Arkansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.71–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.661.6
20261.10.671.6
20271.10.681.6
20281.10.691.6
20291.20.711.6

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Havana920212010
Maynard820241971
Stamps720241970
Compton720221972
Farwell520182010
Old Milo420091967
Ramsey419971967
Poyen420071977
Springhill420222010
Princeton 2420222022
Locust Bayou320231971
Crowley'S Ridge320242011
Coal Hill320221967
Lafe320212021
Russell320212010
Lockesburg320182010
Nance320211995
Ashdown220211967
Crows219901971
Blakely219991969
Augusta220011991
Lurton220101977
Centerton220242022
Yellville220222010
Ravenden Springs220152010

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.