BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Kansas has surged: up 744% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+744%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Kansas: up 744% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Kansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.04–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Kansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.04–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.000.74
20260.380.010.74
20270.390.020.75
20280.390.030.76
20290.400.040.77

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bucyrus520242022
Wreford420242013
Rock Creek420212021
Reece320242010
Melrose220232005
Galesburg220241971
Olathe220212006
Dover220222014
Morehead220242017
Trading Post220232000
Humboldt120141971
Lapland119741974
Wellington120152009
Dalton120212011
Grantville120222016
Seneca119671967
Pittsburg120212010
Le Loup120192008
Longton120192019
Rock Creek 2120242023

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.