BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in New Jersey has surged: up 512% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+512%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in New Jersey: up 512% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in New Jersey is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in New Jersey is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.48
20260.230.000.48
20270.230.000.49
20280.240.000.49
20290.240.000.50

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kemah Lake820241995
Ramseysburg420241996
Midvale219991967
Dover220232016
Spraguetown119901990
Estell Manor120222022
Six Points120142014
Sandbrook120232023
Winslow120102000
Pedricktown 2120142014
Bennett Mill 2120162016
Hope119701970
High Point120241977
Pottersville120172017
Gillette120242021
Cranbury120232017
Friendship120181990

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.