BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Ohio has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Ohio: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Ohio is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.41–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Ohio is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.84 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.41–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.360.81
20260.600.380.82
20270.610.390.83
20280.620.400.84
20290.630.410.85

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scioto Furn820222002
Birmingham520242019
Wilgus420181993
Xenia419681968
Bolins Mills420241983
Rome420242012
Herner Crns320211981
Lattasburg320051967
Meadowbrook320211991
Dresden320242013
Harveysburg319961987
Wayne N.F.220241992
Tar Hollow220231997
Harveysburg 2220242000
Marion220212021
Lucerne220242014
Baxter Ridge220232013
New Somerset219911975
Cuba220242014
Ray220242009
New Marshfld220231990
Omega220231983
Hebron220242013
Valley City220242001
Lockport119751971

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.