BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in New York

All statesBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in New York has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has risen sharply in New York: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in New York is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in New York is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.17
20270.080.000.17
20280.080.000.17
20290.080.000.17
20300.080.000.17

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Hope220102010
Swain 2220122012
Cattaraugus220141970
Cherry Hill220111970
Purdy220211994
Newcomb219931976
North River219791979
Westhampton119941994
Manorville119791979
Rhinebeck120251968
Highland119911991
Oxford 2120171978
Middletown119801979
Rifton119841967
Westbrookvle120192011
Austerlitz119671967
Catskills120151971
Medusa120122012
S Berne120072001
Platte Cove120142014
Laurens120241969
Whitney Pt119971997
Mcdonough120122010
Corbettsvile120071976
Oxford119751972

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.