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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Pennsylvania has surged: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+344%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Pennsylvania: up 344% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.070.26
20260.170.070.26
20270.170.080.27
20280.170.080.27
20290.180.080.27

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peters Mt319741973
Harrisville320161997
Stoneybreak320242000
Clover220242009
Harmonsburg220231977
Rasselas220221969
Mawr Glen220171975
Greentown220241973
Canadensis220241971
Bald Eagle220002000
Peru Mills220231993
Naginey220241977
Warrens Mill220242021
Doe Run220242009
Starlight 2220242017
Espyville120241970
Ferris Crnrs120232005
Whig Hill120131966
Akeley119741968
Teepleville120191977
Sigel120131997
Lynch120171970
N Washington120212021
N Pine Grove120161971
Pottersdale120141968

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.