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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Pennsylvania has surged: up 354% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+354%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Pennsylvania: up 354% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.09–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.09–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.080.27
20270.180.080.27
20280.180.080.27
20290.180.090.28
20300.180.090.28

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Canadensis320251971
Peters Mt319741973
Harrisville320161997
Stoneybreak320242000
Harmonsburg220251977
N Washington220252021
Rasselas220221969
Mawr Glen220171975
Greentown220241973
Bald Eagle220002000
Peru Mills220251993
Naginey220241977
Warrens Mill220242021
Starlight 2220242017
Chatham220252002
Ansonia220252004
Espyville120241970
Clover120252009
Ferris Crnrs120232005
Whig Hill120131966
Akeley119741968
Teepleville120251977
Sigel120131997
Lynch120171970
N Pine Grove120161971

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.