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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in North Carolina has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

17×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in North Carolina: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.6–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.6–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.52.4
20272.01.52.5
20282.01.52.5
20292.11.62.5
20302.11.62.6

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wards Corner1020241970
Kinston1020241984
Dortches820251990
Montague720251990
Bullock720251997
Goldston720222004
Durham620251991
Myrtle Grove520251974
Youngsville520251970
Call520252001
California 2520252014
Roseboro520251996
Belgrade520192002
Arapahoe419941993
Saxapahaw420231973
Climax420251999
Copeland420251994
Eden420252001
Cypress Cr420221990
Pinetops420242003
Biscoe420251991
Lloyd Xroads420231990
Ostwalt420242015
Cypress Lakes420252007
Broad Creek420251993

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.