BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in North Carolina has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

17×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in North Carolina: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in North Carolina is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in North Carolina is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.42.4
20261.91.42.4
20272.01.52.5
20282.01.52.5
20292.01.52.5

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montague1220241990
Wards Corner1020241970
Kinston1020241984
Dudley1020242003
Wilgrove720241996
Durham720241991
Goldston720222004
Youngsville620241970
Call620242001
Jordan520241974
Sawmill520241997
Genoa520241990
Jones Corner520241994
Belgrade520192002
Sheep Ridge520241994
Arapahoe419941993
Saxapahaw420231973
Climax420241999
Cypress Cr420221990
Roseboro420241996
Pinetops420242003
Biscoe420171991
Flay420231995
Lloyd Xroads420231990
Gupton420242001

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.