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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Florida

All statesBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Florida has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Florida: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Florida is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 4.8–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Florida is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 4.8–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.44.58.2
20276.44.68.3
20286.54.78.4
20296.64.78.5
20306.74.88.6

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinecrest4520251966
Holey Land3520251988
Kenansville2020251967
Gardner2019991987
St Lucie1920251987
Croom1620251988
Corbett1620251987
San Antonio1520251967
Ft Lonesome1520251967
Tamiami1519741966
Deanville1520191987
Green Swamp1520251987
Island Grove1420251992
Babcock Rnch1419901988
Dupuis W.E.A1420251994
Callahan1320241988
Mt. Olive1320252002
Crewsville1320252000
Hilliard1220251966
Scottsmoor1220251970
Devils Gardn1220251987
St Augustine1120251967
Sandy1120151987
Belmore1020241966
Indiantown1020171966

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.