BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Connecticut has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

16×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Connecticut: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Connecticut is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.56–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Connecticut is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.56–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.461.9
20261.20.481.9
20271.20.511.9
20281.20.542.0
20291.30.562.0

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willimantic520161980
No Woodbury420241978
Mid Haddam420241979
Warren 2420242017
Buckingham320222001
Woodstock320072007
Long Hill320191986
Westbrook220231977
Danbury220231968
Woodstock 2220242016
Granby220231996
Mystic120221976
E Hartland119851973
Uncasville120241999
Sherman120152015
Greenwich120171997
Warren120101979
Southington120241985
New Hartford120241997

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.