BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Virginia has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Virginia: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.85–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.85–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.771.6
20261.20.791.6
20271.20.811.7
20281.30.831.7
20291.30.851.7

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Surry1020241979
Covington920242008
Taylorstown 2720242012
Taylorstown520101969
Covesville520241984
Concord520241993
Church Road520241969
Ft Pickett N519951995
Isom420241974
Nat Tunnel420241981
Finchley420212012
Brandon420241992
Tryme320241996
Port Royal320191977
Mannboro320241969
Sharps320241970
Chincoteag W320241993
Newsoms320241981
Backbay319731967
Appomattox320242005
Lake Anna320242022
Dismal Swamp320161993
Blacksburg320242024
W Augusta220232011
Edinburg220232006

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.