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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Virginia

All statesBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Virginia has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

11×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Virginia: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.88–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.88–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.791.6
20271.20.811.7
20281.30.841.7
20291.30.861.7
20301.30.881.7

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Taylorstown 2720242012
Brandon620251992
Taylorstown520101969
Covesville520241984
Concord520241993
Ft Pickett N519951995
Isom420241974
Covington420252008
Pungo420251976
Finchley420212012
Tryme320241996
Port Royal320251977
Putnam320251980
Chincoteag W320241993
Brodnax320251989
Newsoms320241981
Backbay319731967
Appomattox320242005
Dismal Swamp320161993
W Augusta220252011
Fincastle220252023
Carters Brdg220091982
Mannboro220251969
Hall220251967
Waverly219851979

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.