BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Vermont has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+81%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Vermont: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.23
20260.120.000.23
20270.120.000.23
20280.120.000.23
20290.120.000.23

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Reading220221969
Middlesex220101975
Newbury 2220212014
Marlboro120242024
Stratton120191999
Landgrove120191983
Post Mills119911987
Shaftsbury120221974
S Wallingfrd120142014
W Rutland120222004
East Haven120182018
Northfld Fls120121988
Hardwick119731973
Fletcher120241970
Hinesburg119811966

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.