BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Missouri has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

25×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Missouri: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Missouri is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Missouri is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.921.8
20261.40.951.8
20271.40.981.9
20281.51.01.9
20291.51.01.9

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mincy920242013
Rueter 2920242023
Richland820212014
Whitewater720242000
Graniteville720241991
Cascade620241979
Moselle620242000
Wesco520241990
Syracuse520241990
Kearney520242011
Union519991992
Peace Valley420231995
Sweden420241985
Warren419761976
Queen City420212021
Woodlandville420242019
Auburn420242017
Cassville320241984
Kirksville320172017
Emden320242018
Lincoln320242013
Pulaski220241976
Graydon220242006
Reeds220222005
Centertown220232009

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.