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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Missouri

All statesBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Missouri has surged: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

27×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Missouri: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Missouri is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Missouri is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.1–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.972.0
20271.51.02.0
20281.51.02.0
20291.61.12.1
20301.61.12.1

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cascade920251979
Whitewater920252000
Palace920252014
Kearney720252011
Richland720252014
Graniteville620251991
Harrisonville620252025
Syracuse520241990
Osage Beach520252001
Miller520252014
West Plains520252015
Union519991992
Sweden420251985
Warren419761976
Sticklervill420252013
Queen City420212021
Rueter 2420252023
Akers320251981
Wesco320251990
Graydon320252006
Ohio320251983
Hilda320251996
Crane320251998
Kirksville320172017
Lucerne320252019

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.