BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Tennessee has surged: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

31×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Tennessee: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Tennessee is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Tennessee is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.912.0
20261.50.942.0
20271.50.972.0
20281.51.002.1
20291.61.02.1

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy1020241973
Mansfield1020241973
Silerton520241973
Corryton Rd520192001
Sweetlips420231997
Trenton420231977
Moscow320241967
Humboldt320241973
Lewis Forest320241966
Peytonsville320242021
Silver Pt320231970
Smokey Jct320221972
Climer320041987
Mecca320231994
Cornpone320241999
Tiptonville220231988
Whiteville220231990
Indian Mound219981982
Collinwood220241975
Lovell220171993
Mt Olive220182005
Harbuck220231996
Indian Mound 2220232004
Signal Mtn120241981
Pawpaw119821969

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.