BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Michigan has surged: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+314%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Michigan: up 314% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Michigan is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.04–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Michigan is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.04–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.030.26
20260.150.030.26
20270.150.040.26
20280.150.040.26
20290.150.040.26

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Remus320242007
Ned Lake220082008
Bravo220231982
New Troy220242000
Herron220162016
Brush Creek220111993
S Lyons219861986
Cohoctah220242024
Mayfield220102004
Harrietta120241990
Hungerford120191997
Chippewa Lk.120242015
Belding 2120242017
Crystal Fls120122012
Imp Lake120142014
Maple Grove120062006
Hiawatha Nf120172017
New Buffalo120111996
Allegan Wma120192019
Almena120142005
Shingleton120072007
Walloon Lake 2120242005
Bear Lake120151976
Scottville120231992
Big Blue Lk120241998

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.