BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Kentucky has surged: up 867% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+867%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-shouldered Hawk Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Kentucky: up 867% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Kentucky is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.92–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Kentucky is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.92–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.812.0
20261.40.842.0
20271.40.862.0
20281.50.892.1
20291.50.922.1

Red-shouldered Hawk Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Apex1020242005
Cumberlnd Gp820181966
Morganfield820242022
Joy720231966
Riverqueen620242010
Kehoe 2620242005
Hodgenville 2620232008
Kings Mtn520241974
Lebanon Junction520242000
Hegira420241988
Hustonville420241967
Shiloh320241967
Sunnybrook320222001
Mammoth Cave North320132009
Canton220241967
Bardwell220031974
Dixon220242008
Mckee220241969
Beattyville219971974
Million219761976
Mcbrayer220192002
Merrimac220241973
Eastview220242017
Pleasurevill220152005
Bays Fork220182000

Red-shouldered Hawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.