BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
311Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.98 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.50–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.98 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.50–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.460.82
20260.650.470.83
20270.660.480.85
20280.680.490.86
20290.690.500.87

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TalladegaALABAMA92024
CovingtonVIRGINIA92024
Mountain CtyGEORGIA82024
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY82018
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY82024
Scioto FurnOHIO82022
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA82024
Amos MillGEORGIA62022
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY62024
BrooksvilleALABAMA52022
BirminghamOHIO52024
BattlecreekSOUTH-CAROLINA52023
Corryton RdTENNESSEE52019
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA52024
HendersonWEST-VIRGINIA52023
OneontaALABAMA42023
DrummondALABAMA42024
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY42024
Bolins MillsOHIO42024
WilgusOHIO42018
IsomVIRGINIA42024
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA42024
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA42024
SlateWEST-VIRGINIA42024
WashburnWEST-VIRGINIA42022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.