BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+196%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+137%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.07–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.051.1
20260.570.061.1
20270.580.061.1
20280.590.071.1
20290.590.071.1

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valley SpgsTEXAS32023
UtopiaTEXAS22021
Dripping SpgTEXAS22024
LeanderTEXAS22006
MontellTEXAS22016
BoerneTEXAS12018
HarperTEXAS12008
PidcokeTEXAS12017
KempnerTEXAS12024
AdamsvilleTEXAS12023
Indian MtnTEXAS12018
ManorTEXAS12013
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12018
LeakeyTEXAS12024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12017
Allen CreekTEXAS12008
RockspringTEXAS12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.