BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 710% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+710%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 710% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.84 (95% range 0.60–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.84 (95% range 0.60–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.541.0
20270.800.561.0
20280.810.571.1
20290.820.581.1
20300.840.601.1

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrandonVIRGINIA62025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT52016
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT42025
Milton 2DELAWARE42025
La PlataMARYLAND42009
Island CreekMARYLAND42025
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT32022
WoodstockCONNECTICUT32007
Long HillCONNECTICUT32019
FredericaDELAWARE32025
Broomes IslMARYLAND31991
MillingtonMARYLAND32025
Furnace TownMARYLAND32024
Pr FrederickMARYLAND32025
Port RoyalVIRGINIA32025
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA32024
WestbrookCONNECTICUT22023
DanburyCONNECTICUT22023
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT22025
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT22025
Warren 2CONNECTICUT22025
GranbyCONNECTICUT22023
Mt PleasantDELAWARE22019
WilmingtonDELAWARE22014
FrankfordDELAWARE22007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.