BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 773% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+773%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 773% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.57–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.82Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.82 (95% range 0.57–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.521.0
20260.780.541.0
20270.790.551.0
20280.800.561.0
20290.820.571.1

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WillimanticCONNECTICUT52016
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT42024
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT42024
Warren 2CONNECTICUT42024
La PlataMARYLAND42009
BrandonVIRGINIA42024
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT32022
WoodstockCONNECTICUT32007
Long HillCONNECTICUT32019
Broomes IslMARYLAND31991
HughesvilleMARYLAND32024
MillingtonMARYLAND32024
EastonMARYLAND32021
CokesburyMARYLAND32024
Furnace TownMARYLAND32024
Port RoyalVIRGINIA32019
SharpsVIRGINIA32024
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA32024
WestbrookCONNECTICUT22023
DanburyCONNECTICUT22023
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT22024
GranbyCONNECTICUT22023
Mt PleasantDELAWARE22019
WilmingtonDELAWARE22014
FrankfordDELAWARE22007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.