BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 281% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+281%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 281% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.97–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.97–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.97–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.922.6
20261.80.932.6
20271.80.942.6
20281.80.952.6
20291.80.972.6

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HavanaARKANSAS92021
CartervilleLOUISIANA91992
Mount UnionLOUISIANA82024
GoodwillLOUISIANA82024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA82021
StampsARKANSAS72024
EvelynLOUISIANA72023
LinvilleLOUISIANA62024
Liberty HillTEXAS62023
FishvilleLOUISIANA52016
DibollTEXAS52024
Neches BithTEXAS52017
Old MiloARKANSAS42009
RamseyARKANSAS41997
PoyenARKANSAS42007
SpringhillARKANSAS42022
Princeton 2ARKANSAS42022
LongstreetLOUISIANA42024
ManyLOUISIANA41992
Fort JessupLOUISIANA42023
CaledoniaTEXAS42024
Powell ParkTEXAS42021
WechesTEXAS42024
Bon WierTEXAS42024
SmyrnaTEXAS42010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.