BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.10–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.10–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.080.52
20260.300.090.52
20270.310.090.53
20280.320.100.53
20290.320.100.54

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt VernonILLINOIS72024
MoselleMISSOURI62024
BucyrusKANSAS52024
KearneyMISSOURI52024
UnionMISSOURI51999
RobinsonILLINOIS42023
MarshallILLINOIS42024
DudleyvilleILLINOIS42024
WrefordKANSAS42024
Rock CreekKANSAS42021
WarrenMISSOURI41976
Queen CityMISSOURI42021
AuburnMISSOURI42024
XeniaOHIO41968
GalvestonINDIANA32024
Portage 2INDIANA32024
WallaceINDIANA32024
ReeceKANSAS32024
KirksvilleMISSOURI32017
EmdenMISSOURI32024
HarveysburgOHIO31996
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA32014
PawneeILLINOIS22023
BradburyILLINOIS22024
MartinsvilleILLINOIS22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.