BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
134Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-shouldered Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Red-shouldered Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.12–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.12–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.100.54
20270.320.100.55
20280.330.110.55
20290.340.120.56
20300.340.120.56

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KearneyMISSOURI72025
HarrisonvilleMISSOURI62025
BelleviewILLINOIS52025
DudleyvilleILLINOIS52025
UnionMISSOURI51999
Mt VernonILLINOIS42025
RobinsonILLINOIS42023
MarshallILLINOIS42025
WrefordKANSAS42024
Rock CreekKANSAS42021
WarrenMISSOURI41976
SticklervillMISSOURI42025
Queen CityMISSOURI42021
XeniaOHIO41968
GalvestonINDIANA32024
WallaceINDIANA32024
Witts StationINDIANA32025
BucyrusKANSAS32025
Rock Creek 2KANSAS32025
ReeceKANSAS32025
OhioMISSOURI32025
KirksvilleMISSOURI32017
LucerneMISSOURI32025
EmdenMISSOURI32024
House SpringsMISSOURI32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.