BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.912.2
20271.60.942.3
20281.60.972.3
20291.71.02.3
20301.71.02.3

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS132023
PulaskiILLINOIS102025
BelknapILLINOIS102025
GeorgiaINDIANA92025
CascadeMISSOURI92025
WhitewaterMISSOURI92025
PalaceMISSOURI92025
YorkILLINOIS82025
ComptonARKANSAS72022
AzaliaINDIANA72025
JoyKENTUCKY72023
RichlandMISSOURI72025
BelmontINDIANA62024
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY62023
GranitevilleMISSOURI62025
FarwellARKANSAS52018
SpencerINDIANA52024
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY52024
SyracuseMISSOURI52024
Osage BeachMISSOURI52025
MillerMISSOURI52025
West PlainsMISSOURI52025
CentertonARKANSAS42025
BirdsILLINOIS42022
BremenILLINOIS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.