BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.97–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.97–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.97–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.852.1
20261.50.882.1
20271.50.912.2
20281.60.942.2
20291.60.972.2

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS132023
DelwoodILLINOIS112024
ApexKENTUCKY102024
MincyMISSOURI92024
Rueter 2MISSOURI92024
CelestineINDIANA82024
Clear SpringINDIANA82024
MorganfieldKENTUCKY82024
RichlandMISSOURI82021
ComptonARKANSAS72022
BelknapILLINOIS72024
AzaliaINDIANA72024
JoyKENTUCKY72023
WhitewaterMISSOURI72024
GranitevilleMISSOURI72024
BelmontINDIANA62024
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY62023
RiverqueenKENTUCKY62024
CascadeMISSOURI62024
FarwellARKANSAS52018
RoyaltonILLINOIS52024
SpencerINDIANA52024
GeorgiaINDIANA52024
Kings MtnKENTUCKY52024
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.