BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Coastal California has surged: up 503% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+503%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Coastal California: up 502% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Coastal California is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Coastal California is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.02.3
20261.71.12.3
20271.71.12.3
20281.71.12.4
20291.81.12.4

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FairfaxCALIFORNIA152024
CoyoteCALIFORNIA122024
San YsidroCALIFORNIA52019
Gold HillCALIFORNIA52023
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA52024
PenningtonCALIFORNIA42022
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA41996
MoragaCALIFORNIA42024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA42011
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA42014
CalpellaCALIFORNIA31986
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA32016
Morro BayCALIFORNIA32019
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA32013
El ToroCALIFORNIA31999
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA32024
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA32016
Mark WestCALIFORNIA32024
ZamoraCALIFORNIA32024
JofeganCALIFORNIA32009
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA32019
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA32024
HughsonCALIFORNIA22022
GravesboroCALIFORNIA21995
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA21997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.