BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Peninsular Florida has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+72%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has risen sharply in Peninsular Florida: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 5.1–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–10.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 5.1–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.24.79.7
20267.34.89.7
20277.44.99.8
20287.45.09.9
20297.55.110.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. OliveFLORIDA302024
St LucieFLORIDA282024
Devils GardnFLORIDA282024
PinecrestFLORIDA262024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA222024
GardnerFLORIDA201999
KenansvilleFLORIDA172024
NobletonFLORIDA162024
CroomFLORIDA162024
CorbettFLORIDA162024
TamiamiFLORIDA151974
DeanvilleFLORIDA152019
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA142024
Babcock RnchFLORIDA141990
San AntonioFLORIDA132024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA122024
Green SwampFLORIDA122024
Holey LandFLORIDA122024
SandyFLORIDA112015
BelmoreFLORIDA102024
IndiantownFLORIDA102017
Pennywash CrFLORIDA92024
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA82024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA72011
ClewistonFLORIDA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.