BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.3–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.3–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.54.910
20277.65.010
20287.75.110
20297.85.210
20307.95.310

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinecrestFLORIDA452025
Holey LandFLORIDA352025
KenansvilleFLORIDA202025
GardnerFLORIDA201999
St LucieFLORIDA192025
CroomFLORIDA162025
CorbettFLORIDA162025
San AntonioFLORIDA152025
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA152025
TamiamiFLORIDA151974
DeanvilleFLORIDA152019
Green SwampFLORIDA152025
Island GroveFLORIDA142025
Babcock RnchFLORIDA141990
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA142025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA132025
CrewsvilleFLORIDA132025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA122025
Devils GardnFLORIDA122025
St AugustineFLORIDA112025
SandyFLORIDA112015
BelmoreFLORIDA102024
IndiantownFLORIDA102017
Pennywash CrFLORIDA92024
Mabel 2FLORIDA92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.