BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 482% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+482%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-shouldered Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Red-shouldered Hawk In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.13–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.13–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.110.30
20270.210.120.30
20280.210.120.31
20290.220.130.31
20300.220.130.31

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA52025
AlderpointCALIFORNIA52012
GreenOREGON52025
NavarroCALIFORNIA42011
KorbelCALIFORNIA32021
Days CreekOREGON32023
GlasgowOREGON32025
HolmesCALIFORNIA22022
Fish RockCALIFORNIA22014
OrleansCALIFORNIA22011
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA22014
WinberryOREGON22023
Hazel CampOREGON22022
Secret ValOREGON22010
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON22024
SelmaOREGON22025
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA12005
HoneydewCALIFORNIA12017
HullvilleCALIFORNIA12017
Rio DellCALIFORNIA12011
LongvaleCALIFORNIA12023
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA12009
MccloudCALIFORNIA11974
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA12025
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.