BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 449% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+449%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 449% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.12–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.12–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.110.29
20260.200.110.29
20270.200.110.29
20280.210.120.30
20290.210.120.30

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlderpointCALIFORNIA52012
NavarroCALIFORNIA42011
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA32024
KorbelCALIFORNIA32021
Days CreekOREGON32023
CoquilleOREGON32023
GreenOREGON32024
HolmesCALIFORNIA22022
Fish RockCALIFORNIA22014
OrleansCALIFORNIA22011
Offield MtnCALIFORNIA22014
WinberryOREGON22023
Hazel CampOREGON22022
Secret ValOREGON22010
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON22024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA12005
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA12024
HoneydewCALIFORNIA12017
HullvilleCALIFORNIA12017
Rio DellCALIFORNIA12011
LongvaleCALIFORNIA12023
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA12009
MccloudCALIFORNIA11974
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA12019
UkiahCALIFORNIA12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.