BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 271% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+271%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 271% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.03–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.03–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.020.15
20260.090.020.15
20270.090.020.15
20280.090.030.15
20290.090.030.15

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RandlettOKLAHOMA42022
SicklesOKLAHOMA32016
PhrosoOKLAHOMA22024
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA22019
Beaver CreekTEXAS22017
WellingtonKANSAS12015
DaltonKANSAS12021
Liberty 3NEBRASKA12024
VerdenOKLAHOMA12016
ErickOKLAHOMA12016
CashionOKLAHOMA12023
HunterOKLAHOMA12024
JetOKLAHOMA12015
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA12022
Pear ValleyTEXAS12008
WinchellTEXAS12017
GraybackTEXAS12005
MertzonTEXAS11980
ShieldsTEXAS12001
HawleyTEXAS12009
SilverTEXAS12022
CharlieTEXAS12023
Shields 2TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.