BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 321% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+321%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Red-shouldered Hawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.030.15
20270.090.030.15
20280.090.030.15
20290.090.030.16
20300.100.030.16

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RandlettOKLAHOMA42022
SicklesOKLAHOMA32016
PhrosoOKLAHOMA22024
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA22025
Beaver CreekTEXAS22017
Shields 2TEXAS22025
WellingtonKANSAS12015
DaltonKANSAS12025
HollenbergKANSAS12025
Liberty 3NEBRASKA12024
VerdenOKLAHOMA12016
ErickOKLAHOMA12016
CashionOKLAHOMA12023
HunterOKLAHOMA12024
JetOKLAHOMA12015
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA12025
Pear ValleyTEXAS12008
WinchellTEXAS12025
GraybackTEXAS12005
MertzonTEXAS11980
ShieldsTEXAS12001
HawleyTEXAS12009
SilverTEXAS12022
CharlieTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.