BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 167% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+167%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.09–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.09–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.080.30
20260.190.080.30
20270.190.090.30
20280.200.090.30
20290.200.090.30

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Herner CrnsOHIO32021
LattasburgOHIO32005
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA32016
Cherry HillNEW-YORK22011
LucerneOHIO22024
New SomersetOHIO21991
HebronOHIO22024
Valley CityOHIO22024
CloverPENNSYLVANIA22024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA22023
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12017
HighlandNEW-YORK11991
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11967
CatskillsNEW-YORK12015
MacdougallNEW-YORK11995
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11993
RushvilleNEW-YORK11969
BranchportNEW-YORK12023
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12018
HamburgNEW-YORK12014
CastileNEW-YORK11977
RandolphNEW-YORK12017
SheridanNEW-YORK12024
NashvilleNEW-YORK12018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.