BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Piedmont has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

16×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Piedmont: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-shouldered Hawk In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.22.0
20271.61.22.0
20281.61.22.0
20291.71.32.0
20301.71.32.1

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA72025
GoldstonNORTH-CAROLINA72022
Taylorstown 2VIRGINIA72024
HebronGEORGIA62022
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA62025
IjamsvilleMARYLAND52024
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA52025
CallNORTH-CAROLINA52025
TaylorstownVIRGINIA52010
CovesvilleVIRGINIA52024
ConcordVIRGINIA52024
Ft Pickett NVIRGINIA51995
BowdonGEORGIA42025
RolandGEORGIA42023
EmmitsburgMARYLAND42025
SaxapahawNORTH-CAROLINA42023
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA42025
CopelandNORTH-CAROLINA42025
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA42025
BiscoeNORTH-CAROLINA42025
OstwaltNORTH-CAROLINA42024
LowrysSOUTH-CAROLINA42025
AndersonSOUTH-CAROLINA42018
FinchleyVIRGINIA42021
MillervilleALABAMA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.