BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Piedmont has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

17×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Piedmont: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Piedmont is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Piedmont is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.51.11.9
20261.61.22.0
20271.61.22.0
20281.61.22.0
20291.61.22.0

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA72024
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA72024
GoldstonNORTH-CAROLINA72022
Taylorstown 2VIRGINIA72024
Ball GroundGEORGIA62021
HebronGEORGIA62022
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA62024
CallNORTH-CAROLINA62024
AthensGEORGIA52023
RutledgeGEORGIA52024
Rock BranchGEORGIA52024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND52024
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA52024
SawmillNORTH-CAROLINA52024
SalemSOUTH-CAROLINA52024
TaylorstownVIRGINIA52010
CovesvilleVIRGINIA52024
ConcordVIRGINIA52024
Church RoadVIRGINIA52024
Ft Pickett NVIRGINIA51995
RolandGEORGIA42023
Good HopeGEORGIA42024
CandlerGEORGIA42024
OlneyMARYLAND42024
SaxapahawNORTH-CAROLINA42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.